The month of August brought the arrival of Fantasy Premier League and its less interesting cousin, the English Premier League. The former brought with it a lot of excitement and joy in the form of a 100 million pound budget which all of us were happy to invest. The first four gameweeks of the season had many managers reaping dividends on their investments while others have had their money pour down the drain.
Featured Articles
Trolls – ‘”Here We Go Again” Edition
So here we are. Here we go again. The first month of Season 2019/20 had many memorable moments and many opportunities for our PFLEF members to express their creativity. The banter and the trolling immediately hit top level from day one. Here is our collection of the best of the best. So let’s have DMX serenade us into this edition. Enjoy !!
FPL Write up – Week 2 – Dada Olamide
This week’s Fantasy Premier league write up shows data from team with most accumulated points and explores the subject around the value around expected goals, is it a myth or worth looking into. Please enjoy
In Geology, there is a popular saying that goes “The past is the key to forecasting the future”.
While such a statement seems so obvious and intuitive, we often fall victim to the lessons of the past.
The financial market (which shares a lot of similarities to the fantasy league) has the number 1 spot in
this regard. For those who read my last article, I am not a fantasy player but rather a data enthusiast
whose job here is to provide unbiased articles to aid in your selection.
So in the spirit of historical data dive, I will be looking at data from two years ago. The question
we will answer or at least aim to answer is what metric has the highest correlation for goals scored and
also is expected goal is they to understanding actual goals scored? As I previously mentioned in my last
article, you want to see trends before it is trendy. Before we get to the juicy stuff, lets briefly have a
weekly recap.
Weekly Recap
How my weekly recap works: I look at data from the top 31 player in terms of points
accumulated. Point out some obvious things and changes from the week before!!
TOPIC OF THE WEEK
What is the best predictor of goals scored by Forwards?
For this exercise, we will look at five metrics
❖ Expected goals
❖ Penalty Touches
❖ Goal Attempts
❖ Big chances
❖ Shots on target
Lets dig in and enjoy what the data is telling us and also you will see( R2) this is a regression,
the higher the R2, the better the prediction. As an example, a R2 of 0.9 means that it is better predictor than a R
2 of 0.1. (keep in mind the maximum R2 you can have is 1). As a rule
of thumb anything above 0.65 is good. (and to my data scientists, yes, I know)
Well there you have it, best of luck this week. Please provide
feedback
Fantasy Premier League Week 1 Stats
EPL Fantasy Weekly Write Up – Dada Olamide
Now that the debacle of the first opening week is behind us (Chelsea cough cough!), let us focus on what unites us. Fantasy soccer, while I have retired from playing the game due to reasons I will share at a later date. My love for data analytics can be applied to EPL fantasy and I am also in a better position to analyze data without bias. Defenders play a salient role in points accumulation in the EPL, I strongly believe that their role are often overlooked both on the field and in fantasy, this can easily be attributed to their lack of flair and let’s be honest no kid grows up wanting to be a defender.
Fantasy games are won on low margins, the ability to think outside of the box, having an astute foresight to see what others are missing and I believe this where high scoring defenders come into play. Attacking defenders who can score goals and keep clean sheets are like delicious cake that helps you lose weight (too good to be true) but in the fantasy world they do exist. Before I dive into what the data is telling us and suggestions on defenders to keep an eye on, let us a do weekly recap
Weekly Re-cap
- City leads the pack in total points accumulated ( Burnley as a surprise)
Figure 1: Average points scored per team
- FWD average points (Surprise Surprise !!!)
Figure 2: Average points by position
- We are seeing some usual suspects
Figure 3:Top 6 points, colored by position
- Players Points vs Cost: are expensive players worth it?
- Top 5 bargain players i.e. points/cost ( origi is one to watch)
Topic of the week
Attacking Defender: Who stands out
Metric 1 : Goal Attempts
- Winner: Emerson / Chelsea / $5.5
- Metric 2: Shot on Target
- Winner: Emerson / Chelsea / $5.5
- Touches in the Penalty Box
- Winners: Bednarek (4.5) / Chilwell (5.5) / Maguire (5.5) / Pereira (6)
Summary: Ironically Emerson from Chelsea was the stand out goal threat defender from this weekend, he doubled the goal attempt, had three times more shot on goal and, he was in the second tier of touches in the penalty box. While it is very early stage, even as a Chelsea defender id recommend staying away from Chelsea defenders until they show signs of defensive rigidity. That been said, Emerson looks very attractive, I will recommend watching him for two more games, if this stats holds and Chelsea is able to a CS here and there, then he is a must have.
2019/20 EPL SEASON PREVIEW
Season kicked off this past weekend and we had Karim in the studios where we did Top 6 predictions and relegation predictions along with the effect of VAR on the game:
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Chelsea FC 2018/19 Season Review
We begin our round of the top 6 EPL team season review with Chelsea and we had previous stamford bridge faithful guests return to review the past season.
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UCL 2018/19 review and look ahead
Continuing with our season review series! Today at the footie fantasy towers, we have San Siro faithful – Nathaniel and Die Roten diehard Dayo to review the European football scene.
Leave us comments about your choice of UCL Match of the season, Best Goal of the Tournament, Which favorites had the most underwhelming tournaments etc.
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2018 / 19 EPL Season Review
We took some time off for our podcasts to refresh for the off season, but we’re back with fresh content! The English Premier League was nailbiting till the end and we decided to take a look back.
Let us know your game of the season, goal of the season and manager of the season.
EPL FAN DEBATE: EUROPA and CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINALS PREVIEW
Catch our preview of two of the biggest matches in European football! EeJay hosts Ola (Liverpool fan) and Idris (Chelsea fan) and they discuss which English teams will take the night on both days. Enjoy!!
Fantasy Football Update – PLeXit Edition
May has been the month of disMay for many. It has also been a month in which some threw their rivals into disArray. Some fought for a throne which became non-existent, their efforts ending in demotion. Some got promoted without doing too much work, Bran Stark style. And some fought the good fight but bowed out after intense pressure, Theresa May style. The Long Summer is here, the Long Night is over. Wildcards or tamed ones, game-saving or game-ruining chips, captain choices, budget dilemmas… all laid to rest for the 2018/19 season. Take a bow everyone, take a bow.