The month of August brought the arrival of Fantasy Premier League and its less interesting cousin, the English Premier League. The former brought with it a lot of excitement and joy in the form of a 100 million pound budget which all of us were happy to invest. The first four gameweeks of the season had many managers reaping dividends on their investments while others have had their money pour down the drain.
This week’s Fantasy Premier league write up shows data from team with most accumulated points and explores the subject around the value around expected goals, is it a myth or worth looking into. Please enjoy
In Geology, there is a popular saying that goes “The past is the key to forecasting the future”.
While such a statement seems so obvious and intuitive, we often fall victim to the lessons of the past.
The financial market (which shares a lot of similarities to the fantasy league) has the number 1 spot in
this regard. For those who read my last article, I am not a fantasy player but rather a data enthusiast
whose job here is to provide unbiased articles to aid in your selection.
So in the spirit of historical data dive, I will be looking at data from two years ago. The question
we will answer or at least aim to answer is what metric has the highest correlation for goals scored and
also is expected goal is they to understanding actual goals scored? As I previously mentioned in my last
article, you want to see trends before it is trendy. Before we get to the juicy stuff, lets briefly have a
How my weekly recap works: I look at data from the top 31 player in terms of points
accumulated. Point out some obvious things and changes from the week before!!
TOPIC OF THE WEEK
What is the best predictor of goals scored by Forwards?
For this exercise, we will look at five metrics
❖ Expected goals
❖ Penalty Touches
❖ Goal Attempts
❖ Big chances
❖ Shots on target
Lets dig in and enjoy what the data is telling us and also you will see( R2) this is a regression,
the higher the R2, the better the prediction. As an example, a R2 of 0.9 means that it is better predictor than a R
2 of 0.1. (keep in mind the maximum R2 you can have is 1). As a rule
of thumb anything above 0.65 is good. (and to my data scientists, yes, I know)
Summary: No surprise that all these metrics were good predictors of goals scored but the
clear winners are Expected goals and Shots on target. This is a good way to predicts players
who are more likely to score the most goals this season. So, see below, the top 5 players for
these three metrics.
Well there you have it, best of luck this week. Please provide
EPL Fantasy Weekly Write Up – Dada Olamide
Now that the debacle of the first opening week is behind us (Chelsea cough cough!), let us focus on what unites us. Fantasy soccer, while I have retired from playing the game due to reasons I will share at a later date. My love for data analytics can be applied to EPL fantasy and I am also in a better position to analyze data without bias. Defenders play a salient role in points accumulation in the EPL, I strongly believe that their role are often overlooked both on the field and in fantasy, this can easily be attributed to their lack of flair and let’s be honest no kid grows up wanting to be a defender.
Fantasy games are won on low margins, the ability to think outside of the box, having an astute foresight to see what others are missing and I believe this where high scoring defenders come into play. Attacking defenders who can score goals and keep clean sheets are like delicious cake that helps you lose weight (too good to be true) but in the fantasy world they do exist. Before I dive into what the data is telling us and suggestions on defenders to keep an eye on, let us a do weekly recap
- City leads the pack in total points accumulated ( Burnley as a surprise)
Figure 1: Average points scored per team
- FWD average points (Surprise Surprise !!!)
Figure 2: Average points by position
- We are seeing some usual suspects
Figure 3:Top 6 points, colored by position
- Players Points vs Cost: are expensive players worth it?
- Top 5 bargain players i.e. points/cost ( origi is one to watch)
Topic of the week
Attacking Defender: Who stands out
Metric 1 : Goal Attempts
- Winner: Emerson / Chelsea / $5.5
- Metric 2: Shot on Target
- Winner: Emerson / Chelsea / $5.5
- Touches in the Penalty Box
- Winners: Bednarek (4.5) / Chilwell (5.5) / Maguire (5.5) / Pereira (6)
Summary: Ironically Emerson from Chelsea was the stand out goal threat defender from this weekend, he doubled the goal attempt, had three times more shot on goal and, he was in the second tier of touches in the penalty box. While it is very early stage, even as a Chelsea defender id recommend staying away from Chelsea defenders until they show signs of defensive rigidity. That been said, Emerson looks very attractive, I will recommend watching him for two more games, if this stats holds and Chelsea is able to a CS here and there, then he is a must have.
Season kicked off this past weekend and we had Karim in the studios where we did Top 6 predictions and relegation predictions along with the effect of VAR on the game:
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May has been the month of disMay for many. It has also been a month in which some threw their rivals into disArray. Some fought for a throne which became non-existent, their efforts ending in demotion. Some got promoted without doing too much work, Bran Stark style. And some fought the good fight but bowed out after intense pressure, Theresa May style. The Long Summer is here, the Long Night is over. Wildcards or tamed ones, game-saving or game-ruining chips, captain choices, budget dilemmas… all laid to rest for the 2018/19 season. Take a bow everyone, take a bow.
We have raced from the moment the starting gun went “bang!” on the 10th of August, 2018. Many Fantasy Football managers were full of enthusiasm and energy in the first 50 meters but lost focus soon after and by December 2018, they had even forgotten they were ever in a race.
Some other managers gave in to their thirst too early in the race and quenched their chips long before the mid-way point. We also saw managers who raced into an early lead until fatigue quickly set in. However, despite the exhausting nature of this FPL race, most of us are still in the running for various milestones as we hit the home stretch.
Before proceeding further, let us applaud those who ran the best times in January and February.
Click on transfers. Click on the underperforming player(s) aka the ”Snakes”. Check prices. Is there enough money in the bank to make the transfer(s)? Should you take negative hit(s) or save up a free transfer by waiting until the following gameweek? Financial musings; risk and reward. The Economics of Fantasy Football decisions.
Whom to captain; The unlocked Pogba or the rising Son? Hazard, (caution) or a rash punt on Rashford? The celebrated Salah or a handy Andy Robertson? Arsenal’s peer-less Pierre or a solid Kepa for keeps? Mane, Sane or an insane gamble on Kante? Crucial thoughts behind the choice of captain. The Psychology of Fantasy Football decisions.
On your bench is a midfielder who scored 15 points and is first pick to come in. One of the players in your starting 11 has not been included in his club’s starting line-up. It looks as if you are about to receive 15 points off the bench. Then the player in your starting 11 is brought on as a sub, 2 minutes before the end of their match. You receive 1 point. The agony of Fantasy Football decisions.
The player you have captained has surprisingly not been picked to play. You are raging and feeling unhappy. Then on the next day, the player that was auto-selected as your vice-captain bangs in a hat-trick for 20 pts, doubled up to 40 when the gameweek is completed. The joys of Fantasy Football decisions.
Welcome to 2019. It has been a rollercoaster of a season so far. Our PFLEF classic and head-to-head leagues remain as competitive as ever. Before proceeding further, let’s acknowledge those FPL managers who have excelled in the past 3 months.
October Manager of the Month – Chris McIvor chomped up 217 pts with his ‘Bite of Suarez’ team in League 1.
November Manager of the Month – Dot Tinkerman channeled his inner Ranieri on the way to 286 pts in League 2A.
December Manager of the Month – Pascal Charles copped 421 pts with his Ankop FC in League 2B.
And now a reminder of how the various leagues have been set up for this season.
*Top 4 in League 1 qualify for the Addicts Champions League organised by Billy Lea
*Bottom 20 in League 1 get relegated.
*Top 10 from League 2A and Top 10 from League 2B get promoted to League 1.
*Top 8 in the PFLEF Head to Head League qualify for the knockout rounds.
17 gameweeks to go, there is still a lot to play for. The screenshots capturing the state of play in the leagues are found below.
Top 10 in League 1 (Contenders for Top 4)
Contenders for the knock-out rounds.
PFLEF Draft Classic League
PFLEF Draft Head to Head League
FootieFantasy Money League
League 2A Promotion Candidates
League 2B Promotion Candidates.
See you all next time. Have a Fantasytic 2019.
Season 2018/19 of the Fantasy Premier League has been bubbling away nicely. Bubbles have been burst, swear-words have been uttered at under-performing players (both in English and Portuguese), bandwagons have been boarded and jumped off (Hi Salah, Bye Salah) and wildcards have been wasted wildly.
It is no boast to say our Fantasy Leagues are among the most brutally competitive leagues in the FPL world. For example, 2100pts might get you top spot in many other leagues but would barely get you 10th place in our classic leagues.
So, if you think you are as Special as Jose, give hugs better than Klopp, pep up players better than Guardiola,
smoke better than Sarri, erm.. er.. Anyway, if you feel you can handle stiff competition better than most Fantasy Football managers, then come over. We waiting ..
Hello everyone. This is our lastest edition rounding up the various leagues we have running in the Premier Fantasy League of Extraordinary Fans (PFLEF) forum.
In a unique twist, we would be having the January and February updates all in the one article. Hence the tag-line, GOGTOF (Get One, Get The Other Free). Aren’t you guys so lucky?